Over and Unders 2009 NFL

Each year Vegas produces Over and Under victory totals for each NFL team for the season.  The challenge is easy to understand.  Let’s say Vegas puts up a projected victory total of 9 for the Cowboys.  The bettor than can choose to wager “OVER” you would be betting that Dallas would win “OVER”  9 games.

In recent seasons we’ve done very well projecting teams to do  better or worse than expected.  Here are the ’09 choices:

The Best

Tampa Bay:  UNDER 6.5—Totally re-building under a rookie coach.  Quarterbacking very shaky.  Might not win a division game against New Orleans, Carolina and Atlanta.  Dallas, Philly, NYG, New England and Green Bay also dot this schedule.  They opened ’08 going 9-3 before losing four straight.  Bucs simply dumped lots of higher priced vets in the off-season knowing the building job ahead.  This club could fold all the way to 4-12…or worse.

Other Top Selections:

San Diego:  OVER 9.5—This club won 14 and 13 before a variety  of injuries contributed to a slide to an 8-8 season.  The Chargers were 4-8 before rallying to get in the playoffs with an 8-8 mark.  Star LB Merriman returns from injury.  Would he have made a few plays to help turn around four games in which the Chargers surrendered the lead in the final 24 seconds of the game last year.   The rest of this division is dreadful.  Eleven wins is certainly a possibility.

Green Bay:  OVER 9—What a weird ’08 the Pack lived through.   They dropped from 13 wins to 6 despite still outscoring their opponents by two points per game.  An incredible seven of their 10 losses came by FOUR POINTS or less.  Their schedule’s the third softest in the entire league.  New defensive coordinator Dom Capers is putting in his respected version of the zone-blitz-happy 3-4.  If the “D” returns to previous levels there’s plenty of offense to fuel a fine season.

Denver:  UNDER 7.5:  What was once an annual contender has turned into your classic also ran.  Four years ago Denver allowed only 17ppg.  By ’08 that total had ballooned to a ridiculous 28 ppg.  UGH.  Now, star QB Cutler has been traded away.  WR Marshall wants out (of jail soon?).  this club managed to lose 7 its last 11 and were beaten bums like KC and Oakland.  Five of their 8 wins came by 4 or less.  All of their 8 losses were by 7 points or more.  This season they’re not nearly as fortunate.

Detroit UNDER 5:  Their NFC North foes all look improved meaning 0-6 in the division seems very possible.  The schedule also includes New Orleans, Pitt, Seattle, Baltimore and Arizona—all of whom look far better than this talent-shy club.   They’re 31-84 their last 115 games and were out-scored by 15ppg last year. Only two of their all-time record 16 consecutive defeats came by less than a TD.  Doe this sound like a team that leaps to 6 or more wins?

Other Selections:

New Orleans OVER 8.5

Arizona UNDER 8.5

Carolina UNDER 8.5

Atlanta UNDER 8

Cincinnati OVER 6