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ATTENTION FANTASY FOOTBALL PLAYERS
As you get ready for your fantasy draft, many of you have asked particular questions about certain players and their value. While I don't have time to respond to each request, I've prepared lists at each of the fantasy position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K and DEFENSE).
I promise to have all six positions finished before the weekend of Aug. 21-23 when many of you will be holding your drafts. The positional analysis will not cover every player at the position. I'll assume you know that Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers really can play QB.
When I do list a player at a position it'll be because I feel he falls into one of four catagories: over-valued, under-valued, bargain or avoid. I'll try to give a short explanation for why I've placed the player on that particular list. For example: I feel Tony Romo falls into the under-valued catagory because people believe Dallas will run more and throw less and that without Terrell Owens the quality of his Dallas corps of wideouts has decreased significantly. I disagree. Romo finished fifth in TD passes last year despite missing three games and feel that the Cowboys will still "sling it around" a lot this season. So, with those parameters defined, let's begin.
QUARTERBACKS
Over-valued
Eli Manning---shaky wide out corps, team loves to run, lower paced offense
Joe Flacco---not a believer yet, was incredibly protected last season, a run-defense type of team, iffy WRs
Carson Palmer---coming off an injury, poor team, shaky line, will miss star wideout T. J. Housh who left for free agent. Because
of injuries he simply may not be a primo player any more
Matt Sanchez---heavily hyped rookie on a big market, high profile team. Way under-experienced coming out of USC. Beware.
Trent Edwards----people assume his numbers will shoot up because T.O. is there. That's dangerous. Finished slowly last year
Under-valued
Aaron Rodgers---a top five scorer in the league last year in his first full season of play. Big upside
Kyle Orton---why does everyone think he's a dog.EManning had 4 more yards passing per game last year. Big Ben had 8 more and this guy was leading the Bears!. Will fire it around on a mediocre Denver team.
Matt Cassel---NOT a flash in the pan. His stats last year were solid. His KC team's far better than most people think. Might be a
ten type by year's end.
Matt Schaub---Did you know he averaged 276 yards passing per start last season?
Donovan McNabb---people assume Vick takes a lot of his time. I see a QB that has passing weapons all around him. Lots of speed which often translates into big plays
Bargain
Sage Rosenfels---averaged 238.5 yards passing per game in his Houston starts last season. Big arm. Lots of weapons. The Vikes choice for the job before they realized Favre might be available.Should keep job
Avoid
Jamarcus Russell---may not even start. starting to smell like a bust
Matthew Stafford---nice prospect of team that'll get him killed with their porous protection.
Any Tampa QB---ugh
RUNNING BACKS
Over-valued
LaDainian Tomlinson---Age is catching up to him, backup Sproles gets lots of carries and Rivers IS the SD offense---not LT
Joseph Addai---Colts drafted a superb runner in Donald Brown who may be the starter eventually
Julius Jones---Not in my top 50. Gets no goal line carries.Slipped terribly late last season
Darren McFadden---Raiders like to rotate three runners keeping this guy's incredible potential on the pine
Jamal Lewis---Can't out-run Father Time
Beanie Wells---Always hurt. RB Hightower probably still gets most of goal line carries
Under-valued
DeAngelo Williams---A stud. May out-score A. Peterson.
Marion Barber---Still starts and gets ALL of the short yards carries.
Frank Gore---Healthy again. A Top 5 types when well on an improving team.
Cedric Benson---THE runner in Cincy. Really came on late last year.
Marshawn Lynch---The more respected passing game opens things up for him.
Nine rushing TD's last year---more than that in '09.
Knowshon Moreno---Rookie runners often make a big impact. I thought he wasone of the 5 best players available in the draft. Stud
Bargain
Ray Rice---I beleive he takes the job away from McGahee. Terrific receiver.
Pierre Thomas---The starter in N.O. Twelve TDs last season---did you realize that?
LenDale White---Slimmed down drasticly! Scored 15 times in '08. Goal line banger.
He's finally gotten serious about his career.
Jonathan Stewart---People overlook him because of Williams presence in the
Carolina backfield. But he scored 10 TDs last year and rushed for over 50 yards a game. Better in his second year.
Donald Brown---Will get lots of chances in Indy where Addai gets hurt a lot. This guy can really play. Very deceptive speed.
Avoid
All New England runners---Too many runners mean no fantasy impact for any one of them
All Lions runners---Do I need to explain this?
Reggie Bush---40 yards running and 40 yards receiving per game lasy year. No 100 yard games. Scored just 6 TDs.
Ricky Williams---Nothing but a fill-in back any more
All Tampa runners---Very shaky offense. No standout runner means splitting up mediocre numbers.
TIGHT END
Over-valued
Chris Cooley----A very good player who never scores. Lots of yards but only one TD last season. But then the Skins don't score much.
Kellen Winslow----Touted highly for years now. Will the move to Tampa wake up his career? Somebody will take him very high hoping it will. Do you see a big producer anywhere in that offense?
Under-valued
Jason Witten---How can he be UNDER-valued? if he's taken behind Gonzalez and Gates that's exactly what he'll be.
John Carlson---As a rookie he produced 5 TDs and 627 yards. Good player getting better.
Owen Daniels---Yes, he only caught two scoring passes, but that''ll rise. His 70 catches last season was fourth best plus he got more than 12 yards per catch. That's higher than Witten, Gonzalez or Gates amongst TEs.
Bargain
Vernon Davis---His shaky rookie season may turn some people off. If he slides, grab him. A rare talent.
Visante Shiancoe---7 TDs on only 42 catches? That's right. And that was in last year's Vikings offense. Flies under the radar.
Kevin Boss---Scored 6 times last season. Only 4 tight ends had more than that. Growing into the job. E. Manning loves the TE.
Greg Olson--The addition of Cutler should really help Olsen's numbers
Avoid
Todd Heap---Career winding down. Just 35 catches and 3 TDs last year. Now the Ravens have added free agent TE L. J. Smith
WIDE RECEIVERS
Over-valued
Michael Crabtree---Missed tons of OTA's and camp. Rookie WRs have tough enough time in year one generally. Take him only after you've drafted at least two other dependable pass catchers.
Terrell Owens---Not the #1 WR in buffalo---that's Lee Evans. Production has fallen incredibly his last 20 games. Get your stale popcorn ready.
Donald Driver---Not the Packers #1 WR any more. Only 5 TD passes last year.
Devin Hester----Terrific return guy but a work in progress at WR. Will be over-drafted because Cutler arrived. Just 665 yards and 3 TDs in '08.
Santana Moss---Doesn't score much. Good player but probably your #3 WR.
Cincy's WRs---Ochocinco and Laveranues Coles have big names but their games may be sliding. Having Palmer back at QB probably results in their being over-drafted.
Roy Williams---Has played only one 16 game season and has had only one big season. Many feel he's simply not a #1 any more.
Torry Holt---Great career but just 64 catches and 3 TD in '08. Plays in a stodgy offense. Headed downhill?
Wes Welker---What you say? This guy over-valued? Yes. Tons of catches---111. But only 10 yards a catch and 3 TDs. That's not a top of the line fantasy player.
Under-valued
Greg Jennings---A BIG time player. Eight catches of 40+ yards. That was the most in the league.
Steve Smith---Numero Uno in NY now. That'll translate into lots more scores.
Dewayne Bowe---Caught 7 TD passes and more tha 1000 yards without a good QB. Now Cassel's there.
Marques Colston---Was a massive producer two years ago but was hurt in '08. Back to resume the lead role in a big offense.
Eddie Royal---Fantastic rookie season (980 plus 5 TDs). Defenses focus on Brandon Marshall while he runs free.
Bargain
Anthony Gonzalez---Harrison's gone. His production skyrockets.
Bernard Berrian---Vikes couldn't throw last year. They be better at it this season so his numbers leap
Percy Harvin---Almost NEVER recommend a rookie wideout but this guy has some moves. Screens, reverses, a huge play waiting to happen.
Kevin Walter---Do you realize his 8 TD catches got him into the top 10 in the league last season? Plus 899 yards!
Deon Butler---Nobody seems to understand how good this guy was in '08. Piled up 810 yards in just 47 catches---7 of 'em for TD's.
Avoid
Devery Henderson--A fantasy tease every year.
Darius Heyward Bay---Rookie with bad hands. For that matter I'd also pass on other touted rookies like Hakeen Nicks and Jeremy Maclin. Few rookie arrive at this position ready to play and most times it's advisable to avoid them in total.
KICKERS
Over-valued
Sebastian Janikowski---Only 5 of 11 beyond 40 yards last year. Didn't reach 100 points with this wimpy offense.
Shaun Suisham---Poor offnse. Missed 8 kicks beyond 40 yards last year.
Adam Vinatieri---Hit only 80% last season. Tried only 9 times beyond 40. Career winding down. Josh Brown of the Rams out-scored him last season.
Under-valued
Stephen Gostkowski---#1 scorer in the league last season. Only he and Akers topped 135 points.
Neil Rackers---Didn't try as many FG last year (only 28---missed just 3). But his numbers should rebound. 7 of 8 beyond 40.
Kris Brown---As the Texans grow his numbers rise.cored 124 last year and the '09 offense looks better. A terrific 29-for-33 in '08
Robbie Gould---Think the Bears offense will be better with Cutler? if so, that's more points for Gould who was 26-for-29 in '08 and scored 119. Very dependable.
Bargain
Garrett Heatley---Took over the N.O. job last year and was dynamite. Didn't miss a single kick. With this offense, he might lead the league in scoring.
Dan Carpenter---Excellent season in Miami.Only 4 kicks he missed came beyond 40.As Dolphins improve their "O" he rises.
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